4Expected Goals (xG)

Goals tell you what happened. xG tells you what should have happened based on the quality of chances created. Every shot is assigned a probability of scoring based on location, angle, and type. A team with consistently high xG creates genuinely dangerous opportunities. xG is used by every top club and broadcaster to evaluate attacking quality beyond goals scored.

Introducing VLOOKUP

VLOOKUP looks up a value in the first column of a table and returns a matching value from another column. Instead of copying xG values manually, you pull them automatically.

=VLOOKUP(what_to_look_for, where_to_look, which_column_to_return, FALSE)

Worked example — budget table on another tab

ClubCountryBudget (€M)
PSGFrance700
ArsenalEngland350
BarcelonaSpain600
=VLOOKUP("Arsenal", A:C, 3, FALSE)   → 350
With 30 countries, dragging a VLOOKUP down takes 5 seconds instead of 5 minutes. This is the kind of automation that makes data work fast at scale.
Your task — Column M (xG / Match)
In My Analysis, column A is the country name. In xG Data, country names are in column A and xg_per_match is column D (4th column). Write the VLOOKUP in M4 and drag down for all 30 rows.
Quiz — answer before moving on

Imagine this scenario — Argentina has an xG of 2.1 per match but scores 1.2 goals on average. Senegal has an xG of 1.3 but scores 1.6 goals on average. Which statement is most accurate?

Check your answer

What xG value does your VLOOKUP return for Spain?