Momentum captures the recent trend — whether a team is currently performing above or below their long-term average.
Imagine two teams that both have a 60% Win Rate over five years. But look at their last 5 matches:
- Brazil won 5 out of 5 → recent Win Rate: 100%
- Germany won 1 out of 5 → recent Win Rate: 20%
Momentum = Win Rate (last 5 matches) − Win Rate (5 years)
- For Brazil: 100% − 60% = +40pp → clearly on an upward trend
- For Germany: 20% − 60% = −40pp → in a difficult run
On paper these two teams look identical. But their trajectories heading into the World Cup are completely opposite. Momentum surfaces that difference.
| Scenario | 5Y WR | Last 5 WR | Momentum | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surging | 50% | 80% | +30pp | Playing well above average. Rising threat. |
| Steady | 65% | 60% | −5pp | Slightly off average. Broadly stable. |
| Declining | 70% | 40% | −30pp | Strong historically but in poor form now. |
| Dark horse | 45% | 80% | +35pp | Modest record but on fire recently. |
Column K: Win Rate (%) — Last 5 matches
In K4, write a formula using the value in J4 (Last 5 Wins) to calculate the win rate over 5 matches. Think about what to divide by, given that there are always exactly 5 recent matches.
Once you have the formula in K4, drag it down to K33. Then format column K as a percentage: select K4:K33 and click the % icon in the toolbar.
Before answering, type =MAX(L4:L33) in an empty cell (e.g. P4) in your My Analysis tab to find the answer directly.
Which team has the highest Momentum score?
What is England's Momentum score?