Albert SchoolFIFA
3Momentum

Momentum shows whether a team is playing better or worse than usual right now. Momentum = win rate (last 5 matches) − win rate (5 years), in percentage points (pp).

Imagine (made-up numbers): Brazil and Germany both have a 60% five-year win rate. Brazil won its last 5 matches (100%), Germany only 1 (20%). Brazil: 100% − 60% → +40pp, rising. Germany: 20% − 60% → −40pp, in a difficult run. Same past, opposite trajectories.
Win rate: 5 years vs last 5 matches
Quiz — answer before moving on

Read the chart: which teams are doing worse recently than over 5 years?

Quiz — answer before moving on

Read the chart: what is Germany's momentum?

Column J (Last 5 Wins) is pre-filled, and column K (= J ÷ 5) fills itself in to turn it into a win rate…

…your turn: compute the momentum in column L.

Type ( , ; or an operator, then click a column or a cell to insert it.

Editing 📝 My Analysis!L4

L4fx
AFJKL
1FIFA World Cup 2026 — My Analysis
2
3TeamWin Rate (% 5y)Last 5 WinsWin Rate (% last 5)Momentum (pp)
4Spain5100.0%
5Portugal360.0%
6France240.0%
7Germany360.0%
8England240.0%
9Netherlands360.0%
10Norway240.0%
11Austria120.0%
12Belgium120.0%
13Croatia00.0%
14Switzerland120.0%
15Scotland240.0%
16Turkey360.0%
17Argentina5100.0%
18Brazil240.0%
19Colombia240.0%
20Uruguay240.0%
21Ecuador360.0%
22Paraguay240.0%
23USA360.0%
24Mexico120.0%
25Canada120.0%
26Morocco480.0%
27Senegal480.0%
28Nigeria240.0%
29Ghana360.0%
30Japan5100.0%
31South Korea240.0%
32Saudi Arabia5100.0%
33Australia360.0%
Pre-filled Fills itself in You writeTip: click a completed column header to sort the view.

Columns B, C from an earlier page aren't done yet.

⏳F — Win Rate = C ÷ B: win rate = wins ÷ matches. It appears once columns B and C are applied.
✓K — Win Rate (last 5) = J ÷ 5: recent wins ÷ the 5 recent matches.

Column L — Momentum. In L4, subtract the 5-year win rate from the last-5 win rate.

Columns F and K must be filled in first — momentum compares them. Finish B and C on the Win Rate page (or use the button above).

Function names in your language
ENFRESIT
COUNTIFNB.SICONTAR.SICONTA.SE
COUNTIFSNB.SI.ENSCONTAR.SI.CONJUNTOCONTA.PIÙ.SE
VLOOKUPRECHERCHEVBUSCARVCERCA.VERT

Both work here, and you can separate arguments with , or ; — just like in a real spreadsheet.

Apply column L to all 30 countries to unlock the next question.
Momentum is based on only 5 matches: it reacts fast but is noisy. Use it to break ties between strong teams, not as the only argument.